Beijing’s strategy has pivoted toward "managed coercion", prioritizing gray-zone pressure over a near-term amphibious assault. The primary risk through 2028 is a maritime quarantine: a legally ambiguous blockade enforced by the China Coast Guard designed to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty while avoiding a unified Western military response.

This paper presents a multi-level transitional analysis of the conflict, covering the period from its onset in 2022 to the operational realities of March 2026. The study focuses on the structural factors that have transformed the crisis into a long-term challenge for the entire European security architecture